Scottish Opinion/MoS Scottish Westminster voting intention

Ok, so I'm a bit late with this post, but never mind. Most people with any interest will already have seen results of the MoS poll, but here they are again. There doesn't seem to be any online version of the poll or the newspaper article, but the results are posted on the SNP's site among others. The poll samples the opinions of 650 people between the 15th and 20th May when the expenses scandal was getting into full swing. There is a great lack of detail in the results and the sample size is smaller than most full polls, but these results should be more representative than the sub-samples I've reported on below. The results are as follows:

Tory.....11%
Labour...27%
LibDems..11%
SNP......43%
Others....8%

So firstly, a massive boost for the SNP with an unprecedented lead in Westminster voting intention. Secondly, the big two London parties are down heavily on what we've seen from other polls. As well as the SNP, the 'others' appear to be the main beneficiary. The Lib Dems continue their poor polling of recent times. If the results of this poll was replicated in the election, the SNP would go well beyond the tipping point that would see them win most existing Labour seats.

So to put this in the context of previous polls the graph below shows the results of all the large sample Scotland-only polls carried out this year. The two YouGov polls in January and March are remarkable in their similarity. However in, by April, YouGov are showing the SNP making gains on Labour. The most recent two polls are TNS/System 3 and this one from Scottish Opinion, so they are not necessarily directly comparable, but the trend is still interesting. The TNS/System 3 poll shows broadly the same results as the YouGov poll from the same period. The latest poll is one of three things - it is either an outlier, captures the temporary disenchantment with Labour and the Tories or it indicates the beginning of a sea change in Scottish politics. It will take a few more polls before we can determine whether this change will be sustained.