Populus/ITN Westminster poll

Another poll on Westminster voting intentions. This time it's from Populus for ITN. The main story being reported is the majority in favour of an immediate UK election and a reduction in likelihood to vote. UK politics and the UK government are clearly in a state at the moment, but it still doesn't seem to be having that much impact on voting intention. This poll shows a the big three UK parties at pretty much the same level we've saw before the expenses scandal, so maybe turnout will be the biggest loser and in a few cases this will allow the 'smaller' parties in. The situation is obviously a bit different in Scotland with the SNP now staking a claim to have usurped Labour as the biggest party.

So what does this poll have to say about the position in Scotland? Well, it shows the SNP well ahead on 40% with Labour slipping back to 27%. Populus use much smaller sample sizes to cover Scotland than YouGov so we expect to see much more variability (this poll questioned just 88 Scots). That said, if we look back at the sub-samples from all the Populus polls since the turn of the year, while Labour were well ahead in the January poll, since then, the SNP are showing a consistent lead. The Tories also seem clear in third place with the Lib Dems struggling around the 10% level.



So make of this what you will, but the lead for the SNP over Labour does appear to be sustained. It also backs up what we're seeing in other polls. The combined sampes for these polls show the following:

Tories.....15%
Labour.....32%
Lib Dems...13%
SNP........37%
Others.....3%